Assumptions or Over-Assumptions: The Story of the 2024 Exit Polls – By Uday Basu (Author)

Unpack the volatile intersection of data, democracy, and public perception in this definitive analysis of political forecasting. Written by veteran analyst Uday Basu, Assumptions or Over-Assumptions: The Story of the 2024 Exit Polls offers an urgent, meticulous, and balanced examination of a statistical industry currently facing a profound crisis of credibility. Focusing on the dramatic aftermath of the 2024 Indian General Elections, this insightful volume serves as a critical handbook for political scientists, journalists, market investors, and citizens seeking to understand how the numbers on our screens shape the realities of our governance.

Exit polls have transformed from simple post-voting surveys into high-stakes media spectacles capable of moving entire markets. While democracy has deep historical roots, exit polling is a relatively modern phenomenon, bringing with it structural questions about accuracy, methodologies, and systemic biases. Basu uses the stunningly off-track predictions

Exit polls have transformed from simple post-voting surveys into high-stakes media spectacles capable of moving entire markets. While democracy has deep historical roots, exit polling is a relatively modern phenomenon, bringing with it structural questions about accuracy, methodologies, and systemic biases. Basu uses the stunningly off-track predictions of the 2024 Indian elections as a launchpad to explore a broader historical pattern. When data models collapse, the fallout is rarely confined to newsrooms; in 2024, it triggered monumental showdowns at the Indian stock exchange, rapid financial fluctuations, and explosive political arguments that shook public confidence in electoral statistics.

Rather than simply joining the chorus of criticism, Assumptions or Over-Assumptions provides an objective, multi-disciplinary defense of data collection. Basu argues that dismissing exit polls entirely because of notable failures would be akin to throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Over the decades, these polls have achieved remarkable accuracy and served as vital tools for social analysis. This book carefully breaks down the systemic machinery of polling across five core dimensions: